Read e-book online Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A PDF

By Dana Kelly, Curtis Smith

Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic danger Assessment offers a Bayesian origin for framing probabilistic difficulties and acting inference on those difficulties. Inference within the publication employs a latest computational method often called Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The MCMC technique can be applied utilizing custom-written exercises or latest normal goal advertisement or open-source software program. This booklet makes use of an open-source application referred to as OpenBUGS (commonly known as WinBUGS) to unravel the inference difficulties which are defined. a strong function of OpenBUGS is its automated number of a suitable MCMC sampling scheme for a given challenge. The authors supply research “building blocks” that may be changed, mixed, or used as-is to unravel a number of not easy problems.

The MCMC process used is carried out through textual scripts just like a macro-type programming language. Accompanying so much scripts is a graphical Bayesian community illustrating the weather of the script and the general inference challenge being solved. Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic danger review also covers the real themes of MCMC convergence and Bayesian version checking.

Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic hazard Assessment is geared toward scientists and engineers who practice or assessment chance analyses. It presents an analytical constitution for combining facts and knowledge from quite a few resources to generate estimates of the parameters of uncertainty distributions utilized in chance and reliability models.

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Extra resources for Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Practitioner's Guidebook

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Do not confuse aprior and bprior here with the parameters of the beta distribution in the previous section; here they represent the parameters of a gamma distribution. Conceptually, aprior can be thought of as the number of events contained in the prior distribution, and bprior is like the period of time over which these events occurred. Thus, small values of aprior and bprior correspond to little information, and this translates into a broader, more diffuse prior distribution for k. Also note that bprior has units of time, and the units have to be the same as the units of t.

Note that in the previous example we were using a lognormal distribution to represent uncertainty in a probability. A potential problem with this representation is that the lognormal distribution can have values greater than one, and as such may not faithfully represent uncertainty in a parameter that should be constrained to be less than one. Cases may arise where the value of p could be approaching unity. In such cases, a logistic-normal prior is a ‘‘lognormal-like’’ distribution, but one that constrains the values of p to lie between zero and one.

In terms of a DAG model, we can represent this as shown in Fig. 2. In Fig. 2, we observe data, xobs, which updates our prior distribution for h, the parameter of the aleatory model that generates xobs. , posterior) distribution of h is then used in the aleatory model to generate predicted data, xpred, whose distribution is given by Eq. 1. We first illustrate this use of the posterior predictive distribution with an example related to the frequency of an initiating event. Recall that the usual aleatory model for the occurrence of initiating events is a Poisson distribution with mean kt, where k is the initiating event frequency.

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