By Brendan Brown
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Those who found a devious pathway through the gates of the Credit Suisse branch at Chiasso were eventually rejected badly bruised. CALCULATION IN SPECULATION At various stages in this book techniques of currency trading and investment are discussed at some depth. As a group currency traders and investors have an importance in the macroeconomy that has often been ignored. In a free currency market, where no central bank intervention occurs, the role ofthe speculator is essential to a smooth international flow of both capital and goods.
Who, in which role, gains most? Consider the example of a country such as the UK that discovers oil fields within its territory. Over many years they are expected to generate significant net export earnings equal to the rental element in total oil receipts. Ignoring the possibility offoreign exchange market intervention the sterling exchange rate would be likely to depreciate by less against the US dollar than differential inflation between the UK and USA would justify. The consequential real appreciation of sterling by causing an increase in the relative price of non-traded goods in the UK, generates a non-oil trade deficit, offsetting the surplus on trade account.
Its sun is the US domestic money market. Planets include the euro-Swiss franc, US dollar and West German mark markets. Around each of these in turn satellites revolve. The euro-French franc market is a satellite of the forward dollar-franc currency market. All are under the common pull of the dollar sun which functions like Apollo's sun chariot. During its night of rest greater independence is possible for some planets and satellites. Order is restored when the clock strikes a certain hour and New York awakens.